Ben Griffin needed 29-under-par to win last year’s World Wide Technology Championship. That figure sets the challenge for the 120-player field returning to El Cardonal at Diamante in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, from November 5–8, 2026. With three consecutive champions finishing at least 24-under, players who consistently manufacture birdie chances should attract particular attention.
Across leading offshore sportsbooks, the 2026 World Wide Technology Championship odds position Ryan Gerard as the favorite, followed by Griffin, Jackson Koivun and Benjamin James. But outright prices tell only part of the story. Recent approach performance, putting consistency and the ability to capitalize on four par 5s offer a more useful framework for comparing players on this Tiger Woods-designed course.
World Wide Technology Championship Odds and Tournament Favorites
Gerard enters tournament week with eight top-10 finishes during the 2026 season, including a third-place result at the TOUR Championship. Griffin returns with proven course credentials, while Koivun and James bring strong recent ball-striking numbers but no competitive history at El Cardonal.
| Player | Outright | Top 5 | Top 10 | Top 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Gerard | +1450 | +280 | +150 | -143 |
| Ben Griffin | +1550 | +320 | +162 | -130 |
| Jackson Koivun | +1700 | +320 | +162 | -130 |
| Benjamin James | +2250 | +375 | +190 | -110 |
| Keith Mitchell | +1900 | +550 | +275 | +125 |
| Harry Hall | +2700 | +600 | +300 | +137 |
Odds represent November 3 pre-tournament snapshots, not guaranteed live prices. The sportsbooks did not provide exact intraday capture times. Finishing-position markets include ties, and prices may change before Thursday’s opening round.
One important distinction is that prices vary considerably between operators. Mitchell, for example, was available at +1900 to win at DraftKings but +2800 at bet365. James was listed at +2250 and +1800, respectively. These differences illustrate why price comparison matters, although they do not establish that either golfer offers a profitable bet.
The published November 3 betting markets also include first-round leader opportunities, with Gerard listed at +2200 and Griffin and Koivun at +2500. Independently confirmed head-to-head matchup prices were not available for this preview.
Why El Cardonal Rewards More Than Driving Distance
El Cardonal measures 7,452 yards and plays to a par of 72. Woods’ design features wide fairways, prominent bunkering, desert arroyos and substantial elevation changes. Paspalum grass covers the playing surfaces, including the greens.
Those characteristics help explain the tournament’s scoring history. Erik van Rooyen won at 27-under in 2023, Austin Eckroat followed at 24-under in 2024, and Griffin established a tournament record of 29-under in 2025. Across those three editions, the winning score averaged approximately 26.7-under-par.
Four par 5s contribute to those scoring opportunities, particularly the 554-yard 14th and downhill 585-yard closing hole. Yet generous fairways do not eliminate the need for precision. Players still must control their approach distances and negotiate green contours to create realistic birdie chances.
That makes Strokes Gained: Approach, birdie production and putting performance particularly relevant. Driving distance can create shorter approaches, but its benefit depends on what happens afterward. A powerful player who regularly loses strokes with irons may surrender much of the advantage gained from the tee.
Which Players Have the Strongest Recent Performance Profiles?
Ryan Gerard and Ben Griffin Bring Different Strengths
Gerard’s case rests on consistency. He finished T4 at the Baycurrent Classic in October after placing third at the TOUR Championship in August. PGA TOUR ShotLink-powered data shows he gained an average of 0.469 strokes off the tee and 0.138 strokes putting per round over his last five starts. His T14 finish at El Cardonal in 2024 also provides some relevant course experience.
Griffin has a stronger tournament history, having won last year and finished T24 in 2024. His latest result, T4 at the November 1 VidantaWorld Mexico Open, suggests improved competitive form after two missed cuts in August. However, his five-start averages show +0.432 Strokes Gained: Approach against -0.356 Strokes Gained: Putting.
That contrast matters. Gerard offers the stronger recent consistency profile, while Griffin has already demonstrated his ability to turn El Cardonal’s opportunities into a winning score. Neither advantage guarantees that last season’s performance will repeat.
Benjamin James and Jackson Koivun Offer Ball-Striking Upside
James has one of the field’s most striking recent statistical profiles. Over his previous five appearances, he averaged +1.044 Strokes Gained: Approach and +0.902 Off-the-Tee, contributing to a +2.246 Total figure. His recent results include a runner-up finish at the Biltmore Championship Asheville and a T5 at the Bank of Utah Championship.
Koivun won the July 3M Open at 25-under before recording a T5 at Biltmore. His five-start averages of +0.428 in approach play and +0.405 off the tee are encouraging, although his -0.174 putting figure points to a potential weakness. He finished T65 at the Bank of Utah Championship in his most recent PGA TOUR start.
Both are making their tournament debuts. Their ball-striking supports the possibility of competitive scoring, but neither has established how those strengths translate to El Cardonal’s particular greens and prevailing winds.
Keith Mitchell and Harry Hall Present Contrasting Cases
Mitchell ranks fourth on the PGA TOUR in season-long Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee at +0.646. His five-start figure improves to +0.772, and he finished T2 at the Baycurrent Classic. However, his recent approach figure is -0.156, and his El Cardonal history includes a T63 in 2025 and missed cuts in 2023 and 2024.
Hall presents almost the opposite profile. His last-five averages include +0.481 Strokes Gained: Approach and +0.592 Putting, while his 2024 tournament appearance produced a T14. That combination deserves attention at a venue where converting approaches into birdies can matter more than simply maximizing distance.
These comparisons reinforce the distinction explored in FS Golf’s performance and scoring coverage: a golfer’s measurable results are more informative than assumptions based on equipment, reputation or a single impressive tournament.
Confirmed Withdrawals and Player Health Updates
Four players have withdrawn from the 2026 World Wide Technology Championship as of November 3. Mac Meissner was replaced by Paul Peterson, Dan Brown by Ben Martin, Keita Nakajima by Tyler Duncan, and Adam Schenk by Will Gordon.
The PGA TOUR’s official field updates confirm those changes but do not establish the reasons for the withdrawals. They should not be described as injury-related without additional evidence.
Billy Horschel also warrants monitoring after withdrawing during the first round of the previous week’s VidantaWorld Mexico Open because of illness. He remains listed in pre-tournament World Wide Technology Championship markets, and no confirmed withdrawal from this event had been established at the time of research.
Field changes can alter betting-market composition, but there is no verified evidence that these particular withdrawals caused specific odds movements. A final check of the official field is necessary before treating any player as an active contender.
Weather Could Change the Scoring Equation
Early forecasts for Cabo San Lucas indicate temperatures generally in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit during the November 5–8 tournament. Thursday and Friday appear favorable for scoring, although projected wind speeds vary between approximately 8 and 20 mph depending on the forecast provider.
Weekend precipitation remains a genuine uncertainty. AccuWeather’s November 3 outlook assigns a 77% chance of rain Saturday and 57% Sunday, while the PGA TOUR’s published outlook and other forecasts anticipate much drier conditions. Those differences are too substantial to justify a confident prediction about weekend scoring.
Stronger winds could make El Cardonal’s exposed approach shots more demanding, particularly where elevation changes and crosswinds affect distance control. Rain could also alter green speeds and playing conditions.
Until the forecasts become more consistent and official tee times are available, there is insufficient evidence to establish a meaningful morning-versus-afternoon advantage.
What the Betting Prices Actually Reveal
The most useful distinction between the leading contenders is how their performance strengths translate into different betting probabilities.
Gerard’s +1450 outright price at DraftKings implies a break-even probability of approximately 6.45%, before accounting for the sportsbook’s margin. James at +2250 implies about 4.26%. Neither calculation proves that the player is undervalued; each simply establishes the probability a bettor would need to exceed to justify the price.
Finishing-position markets create a different decision. Hall’s +300 top-10 price corresponds to a 25% break-even probability, while Mitchell’s +125 top-20 price requires approximately 44.44%. Those thresholds should be weighed against recent performance, course suitability and the uncertainty inherent in a 120-player field.
El Cardonal’s history supports expecting opportunities for aggressive scoring, but the 2026 champion will still need to combine effective driving, accurate approaches and enough made putts across four rounds. The clearest pre-tournament advantage belongs to readers who evaluate those components separately, compare available prices and reassess the field and weather before play begins.